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Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-09T22:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-08 03:59
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-08 01:53
 - Radial speed: 1528.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W24
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 864.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-06-09 22:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.47 hours)
Lead Time: 35.35 hour(s)
Difference: 18.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-06-09T05:15Z
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